The volume growth center has steadily rebounded. 1) upstream driver: online retail sales of physical goods in 2023Deuceswildbonuspokerfree. 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last yearDeuceswildbonuspokerfreeIn the first quarter of 2024, online retail sales of physical goods totaled 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 percent over the same period last year. The sinking trend of e-commerce may be clear, and a single express package will be accepted in 2023.DeuceswildbonuspokerfreeOnline retail sales of physical goods fell 8.9% to 98.56 yuan from a year earlier, and online retail sales of physical goods carried by a single express package fell 27.0% to 75.59 yuan in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year. 2) Industry volume: in 2023, the industry express business volume increased by 19.4% to 1320.72 billion pieces compared with the same period last year; in the first quarter of 2024, the industry express delivery business volume increased by 25.2% to 37.11 billion pieces compared with the same period last year. The growth center of express business volume has returned steadily, excluding 22 years of epidemic factors, the industry express business volume in the first quarter of 2024 is nearly 20% higher than that of the same period in 21 years. We expect that the business volume of the express delivery industry in 2024 may still maintain a year-on-year growth of 13%, 15% or more, or it is expected to continue the trend of exceeding expectations. 3) Enterprise volume: the express business volume of Zhongtong Express in 2023 was 30.202 billion, an increase of 23.8% over the same period last year, which was 4.4% higher than the growth rate of the industry; the company guided its own express business volume of 347.3-35.64 billion pieces in 2024, an increase of 15% and 18% over the same period last year. The express business volume of Yuantong Express in 2023 was 21.204 billion, an increase of 21.3 percent over the same period last year, 1.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industry; the business volume of express delivery in the first quarter of 2024 was 5.568 billion, an increase of 24.9 percent over the same period last year, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the industry. The express business volume of Yunda shares in 2023 was 18.854 billion pieces, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year, which was 12.4% lower than the industry growth rate; the express business volume in the first quarter of 2024 was 4.942 billion pieces, an increase of 29.1% over the same period last year, which was 3.9% higher than the industry growth rate. The express business volume of Shentong Express in 2023 was 17.507 billion, an increase of 35.2 percent over the same period last year, 15.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industry; in the first quarter of 2024, the business volume of express delivery was 4.587 billion, an increase of 36.7 percent over the same period last year, and 11.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industry. SF Holdings handled 11.9 billion express logistics in 2023, up 7.5 per cent from the same period last year. X 2.96 billion express logistics in the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 3.1 per cent year on year. The quality of operation is expected to improve prices: the unit price of 24Q1 access tickets has fallen back to about the same level as 23Q3, and the downward space is expected to be limited. The price of e-commerce express delivery in the off-season in the first quarter of 24 was slightly lower than that in the first quarter of last year, which was stable compared with the third quarter before the price increase in the peak season last year, or preliminarily verified that the competition order was stable. In addition to Shunfeng, the divestiture of Fengwang and the return to direct operation are expected to further improve the profit quality of express logistics. Single-vote profit: 24Q1 single-vote net profit stabilized compared with the peak season in the fourth quarter, and the follow-up is expected to improve. The comprehensive net profit of Zhongtong Express in 2023 was 0.29 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan (+ 3.8%) over the same period last year. The net profit of Yuantong Express in 2023 was 0.18 yuan, down 0.04 yuan (- 21.7%) from the same period last year, while that of 24Q1 was 0.17 yuan, down 0.03 yuan (- 16.6%) from the same period last year. The net profit of Yunda shares in 2023 was 0.09 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the same period last year (+ 2.3%), while that of 24Q1 was 0.08 yuan, down 0.01 yuan (- 10.9%) from the same period last year. The comprehensive net profit of Shentong Express in 2023 was 0.02 yuan, down 12.4 percent from the same period last year. The net profit of 24Q1 was 0.04 yuan, an increase of 4.8 percent over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.02 yuan (+ 79.9%) from the previous year. Although the price as a whole has a marginal downward trend to a certain extent, the head access company still benefits from the enhanced scale effect, the downward transportation oil price, the improvement of asset layout, the promotion of lean management and other factors, and the improvement of single ticket cost can better hedge against the downward price of single ticket, so as to maintain the overall stability of single ticket profit. In the first quarter, as the express delivery industry is relatively off-season, the scale effect is weak, the head enterprise can still achieve the stabilization of single-vote net profit compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and further improvement is expected. Link synergy: e-commerce express enterprise headquarters take money or improve the franchisee. In the franchise express industry, the terminal franchisee, as the main body of independent operation, directly participates in the market competition under the macro-policy control of the headquarters, so there is a relationship of game and cooperation between the two at the same time. The headquarters obtains income from the receiving franchisee and pays the cost to the delivery franchisee, which may occupy the franchisee to a certain extent. By the end of March 2024, the ratio of Yuantong accounts payable to operating cost (TTM) was 8.3%, down 0.1% from the same period last year; Yunda's accounts payable to operating cost (TTM) ratio was 6.7%, down 2.7% from the same period last year; and Shentong's accounts payable to operating cost (TTM) ratio was 7.1%, down 1.6% from the same period last year. Industry thinking: there is still room for growth, profit quality improvement 1) business volume: e-commerce express delivery volume expansion and growth rate, on the one hand, online shopping consumption penetration is further improved under the background of the further rise of live e-commerce, on the other hand, the sinking and fragmentation of online shopping consumption behavior is promoted.DeuceswildbonuspokerfreeAfter the decline of the online shopping volume of physical goods for single express parcels, we believe that the express industry still has excess growth relative to the upstream e-commerce industry. 2) Competition order: based on the comprehensive study of policy, leading intention and production capacity, and new entrants, we analyze that from the perspective of relative marginal changes in 2023, industry price competition may ease in the future. Investment suggestion 1) in terms of the franchise system, the valuation may have been adjusted, paying attention to the opportunities for business improvement, focusing on the steady leader of e-commerce express delivery that is included in the Hong Kong stock market and whose liquidity and valuation are expected to be improved. And share giant Yuantong Express, Yunda shares, Shentong Express. 2) in terms of direct operation, it is optimistic that SF Holdings, as the leader of integrated express logistics, has a prominent inflection point and is expected to open up the medium-and long-term value space. Risk factors: the demand for online shopping of physical goods is lower than expected; the price competition of e-commerce express is intensified; the stability of the end franchisee is declining. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.