Analysts at CITIC Construction Investment Futures pointed out that facing the CBOT soybean market5cardstudpokerThe market consensus is that U.S. soybeans have limited downside and insufficient upside potential. Analysts stressed that despite the significant increase in soybean planting area in South America, recent meteorological disasters in Brazil may lead to production cuts, which may alleviate concerns about oversupply and create room for U.S. soybeans to rise. At the same time, commodity market pricing is greatly influenced by the macro economy, and the rise in copper prices may provide support for the valuation of U.S. soybeans.
[The Northern Hemisphere Planting Season Causes Fund Shorts Concerns, and Fund Headroom in the CBOT Soybean Market Changes] The arrival of the Northern Hemisphere Planting Season usually makes fund shorts feel uneasy. The price of agricultural products (000061) has an impact on agricultural production plans. Too low pricing may indicate a reduction in future planting area and an adjustment in excess fundamentals.
CBOT soybean fund headroom was reduced, and market consensus emerged. CBOT soybean market fund clearance from a high of-19 in early March5cardstudpoker.70,000 lots, which has dropped to-60,000 lots. Despite external factors such as climate, the market generally believes that U.S. soybean prices have limited room below and insufficient elasticity above.
[Commodity spillover sentiment and independent pricing loss have become the focus of the market]. The pricing power of the commodity market is gradually shifting to a macro narrative, and the negative feedback of demand is reflected in the basis of oils and oils. U.S. soybean prices are affected by the allocative forces of the overall commodity market and the bullish atmosphere of other agricultural products such as CBOT wheat.
[Growth in South American crop production poses a challenge to global market demand]. In recent years, the expansion of Brazilian agriculture has increased significantly5cardstudpokerIncrease soybean production. Production is forecast to continue to rise in the next few years, which may pose a challenge to global demand.
[Tracking excess pressure, focusing on changes in Brazil's exports and profit extraction]. The tracking of excess pressure is mainly judged by Brazil's export CNF quotation and profit extraction. Recent meteorological disasters and logistics problems in Brazil have affected soybean production and profit margins, and have an impact on export increases and subsidies.
[Global soybean price pressure may ease]. Although long-term excess expectations are difficult to change, global soybean price pressure is expected to ease before November this year. The narrowing expectation of Brazilian export subsidies has an important impact on domestic oil meal pricing.
[Outlook for exogenous variable "X" factor]. Uncertain factors such as weather, logistics and global terms of trade have an important impact on the future soybean market. Current drought expectations in North America and congestion in Brazilian ports are worthy of attention.
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