Newsletter summary
"April non-farm data show that the US job market is cooling, job creation is slowing, unemployment is rising and hourly wage growth is decelerating. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2024, the first cut may be advanced to September, but Fed policy still depends on future inflation."
Text of news flash
The US job market shows signs of cooling in April, with the labor force participation rate remaining stable but the unemployment rate rising. In addition, part-time employment hit a 41-month high, reflecting an easing of tensions in the labour market. The number of jobs provided by the government has declined, while job creation in sectors such as construction, leisure and hotel services, professional and business services has also slowed. It is worth noting that the growth rate of hourly wages in the United States continues to slow year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of non-farm hourly wage fell to 3% in April.Rouletteluckyprize.9%, the lowest level since June 2021. At the same time, the growth of hourly wage also slowed down, and non-farm hourly wage increased by 0% in April.Rouletteluckyprize.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. From the perspective of the industry, the hourly wage growth in the commodity production industry has dropped sharply from the previous month, while the hourly wage growth in the service industry has also declined slightly. These data provide the Federal Reserve withRouletteluckyprizeWith important information about changes in inflation, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2024, with the first cut expected to be advanced to September. However, market expectations for interest rate cuts are not consistent. The dollar and US debt markets have reflected expectations of interest rate cuts, but there are doubts about the persistence of low growth in non-farm hourly wages and concerns that follow-up data could be repeated. As a result, the Fed's policy path will depend on inflation in the coming months. Investors should note that higher-than-expected trends in the US economy, employment and inflation, as well as the Fed's monetary policy, are all likely to have an impact on the market.
