SourceSnackclubcryptoChina Fund Daily
Reporter Wu Jun
In the past, convertible bonds, which were regarded as "advance can attack, retreat can defend", have recently fallen below their face value, attracting market attention. A number of fund managers interviewed by reporters believe that convertible bonds rarely fall below face value in large numbers, which is behind the continued decline in the performance of positive stocks, investors' worries about credit risk in the convertible bond market have spread, and some convertible bond prices may be lower than face value for a long time in the future, or even delisted.
Fund managers are optimistic about the investment value of the convertible bond market and believe that the current valuation is still low and the allocation price of the high-quality target is relatively high. However, in terms of investment, it is necessary to balance the allocation and diversification of investment, choose the object of stable profits, avoid the conversion of small market capitalization of subject matter speculation, and carefully evaluate the credit risk of individual bonds.
49 convertible bonds fall below face value
The conversion of weak qualifications into bonds may usher in clearing.
According to Wind data, of the 539 convertible bonds issued by public offering in the market as of April 30 this year, 49 prices fell below 100 yuan, accounting for more than 9%. Compared with the same period last year, the number of convertible bonds falling below face value has increased significantly. In fact, on April 16, the number of convertible bonds falling below face value reached about 60, accounting for more than 11%. With the recent recovery of the equity market and the strengthening of positive stocks, the price of some convertible bonds returned to above 100 yuan.
Chen Haoyu, fund manager of Ping an Fund, believes that there are a large number of convertible bonds whose prices are lower than their face value, which is due to the continuous decline in the performance of positive stocks corresponding to convertible bonds, or even continuous losses. Market participants take into account the risk of continuous decline in the performance of positive stocks or even delisting into convertible bonds, which are below par value, which are at risk of losing liquidity. With the expansion of the equity market in recent years, the operating conditions of all kinds of listed companies are very different, facing the situation of survival of the fittest. So later, we may see the existence of convertible bonds below face value for a long time, and even some convertible bonds have been delisted. "
Gao Hui, fund manager of the mixed Asset Investment Department of Boshi Fund, said that the pure debt base of convertible bonds can be roughly used as its price floor, and the negative pure debt premium reflects the market pricing of debt bottom credit risk. Recently, about 50 convertible bonds fell below face value, indicating that concerns about credit risk in the convertible bond market have spread.
"in May last year, Blue Shield convertible bonds and Souter convertible bonds successively set a precedent for credit risks triggered by the delisting of convertible bonds. Since the beginning of this year, with the end of the small micro-disk bull market, the introduction of 'delisting new rules', and a larger proportion of convertible bonds ushered in maturity, sales and other key points, more convertible bonds began to be included in the expectation of credit risk. " Gao Hui further said that at present, it is in a period of intensive performance disclosure, and performance and fundamentals have once again become the core factors of market pricing. Prior to the general fall in the market in early February, weak-qualified convertible bonds that fell below face value had no strong power to repair. Superimposed investors are more worried about the risk of thunderstorm on the performance of convertible bonds, and the number of convertible bonds falling below face value has increased significantly recently.
Therefore, in terms of investment, Chen Haoyu believes that two years ago, the market traded convertible bonds had a "debt bottom" by default, and this "debt bottom" was generally the face value. Based on this logic, convertible bonds used to be a variety that can be attacked and retreated. However, with the emergence of more and more convertible bonds falling below face value in the market, the previous investment model of ignoring fundamentals and simply looking at low prices has been greatly challenged. "in the future, we should start more from the fundamentals, choose targets with clear business models and stable profits, and avoid pure subject subjects that are unable to deliver on performance and whose market capitalization is too small and easy to be hyped."
Be optimistic about the current allocation value of convertible bond market
The valuation of high-quality targets is relatively high.
In fact, due to the current low equity market, many fund managers are very optimistic about the investment value of high-quality convertible bonds.
Chen Haoyu said frankly that although some changes have taken place in the current convertible bond market, it still has a good investment value. First of all, from the average price of convertible bonds in the whole market, it is still in a low position in recent years. In addition, in the market fluctuations since last year, we can see that the price of convertible bonds with good fundamentals has also fallen with the market. To sum up, the current opportunity in the convertible bond market is that the price of the high-quality target is still low and the overall market is low. The risk is that convertible bonds below face value may exist for a long time, or even be delisted. Therefore, we will adhere to the concept of long-term investment, based on fundamentals, choose cost-effective targets for allocation, and avoid small market capitalization convertible bonds with subject matter hype. "
According to Gao Hui's analysis, as of April 29 this year, Wind data show that the market-wide pure debt premium has shrunk to around 10%, which is at an all-time low; the maturity yield of partial debt convertible bonds has risen to 2%.SnackclubcryptoAround .4%, it is at a historically high level; the 100-yuan parity premium rate of convertible bonds in the whole market is about 21%, which is in the 50% quantile since 2017 and 30% since 2020, although it is not absolutely cheap, but it is attractive to some extent. Generally speaking, under the background of the continuous decline of interest rates in the bond market and the shortage of assets in the bond market, convertible bonds, especially those with high maturity yield, have a good allocation value.
Gao Hui also warned that the current equity market as a whole fluctuates in a narrow range, dominated by the structural market. On the one hand, there may be a relative lack of hot concept targets in the convertible bond market, on the other hand, the high conversion premium rate will restrict the ability of convertible bonds to follow the rise. At the same time, there are more credit risk disturbances than before, so it is necessary to carefully evaluate the credit risk of individual bonds to grasp the investment opportunities of convertible bonds.
Zhang Yongzhi, deputy general manager of the fixed income department of the Chinese business fund, said that in the long run, the trend of the convertible bond market is more closely related to the equity market. "and I am much more optimistic about the equity market this year than last year. The core is that the current valuation of A shares has reached a relatively low level, and the valuation level of the convertible bond market has returned to a more reasonably undervalued range. From historical experience, buying and holding when undervalued, the long-term return is better than buying when overvalued, so, compared with pure debt funds, secondary debt funds and convertible bond funds may have more opportunities this year. "
However, Cathay Pacific Fund believes that there is a certain differentiation in the overall structure of the convertible bond market, and the valuation of partial bonds and balanced convertible bonds has increased significantly in the short term, but the premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of more than 90 yuan is below the historical 50% quantile, and the premium rate of high parity varieties of partial stock type is lower, so the current opportunity for the allocation of convertible bonds is more structured.
Pay attention to the balanced allocation of value and growth
分散投资、避免踩雷
记者了解到，在投资上，基金经理更偏向于寻找盈利稳定的标的，均衡分散配置。
陈浩宇表示，目前可转债投资采取哑铃型配置策略，一端是业绩稳定、低估值的大盘蓝筹转债；另一端是具有明确产业趋势，业绩兑现度高的医药、汽车和其他科技类标的。在价值端，通过业绩跟踪和行业比较，寻找估值性价比高的行业进行配置，比如看好银行，当前的估值水平过度反映了银行存在的坏账风险，随着经济基本面向好的趋势逐步验证，银行的价值重估是大概率的。另外，在偏成长端，更注重风险控制，从中观行业到微观公司的业绩跟踪、公司历史上业绩兑现度等多维度，对投资标的进行筛选，分散投资。
高晖称，看好当前转债市场的投资机会，但是，往后看，赎回的不确定性始终是转债投资者的困扰、对溢价率把握难度会提高。此外，体量较大的转债相继到期退市，权益融资逆周期调节也导致转债供给下降，当前转债市场有缩容的风险。但总的来说，转债作为固收类资金参与权益市场的重要途径，“进可攻，退可守”的特征值得重视，配置转债的必要性在提升。投资上倾向于维持较高仓位和组合弹性，在红利（公用事业、金融）、成长（科技医药）、周期（有色）中均衡配置。